TONIGHT'S BEST HOME RUN PICKS

What the numbers mean

Home run chance

Our model's estimate of how likely this player is to hit at least one home run in tonight's game. A 20% chance means we'd expect it to happen about 1 in every 5 games like this one.

Recent form ("hot")

How many home runs the player has hit in their last several games. A player who's "hot" has been going deep often lately.

Matchup

Who they're facing. Some pitchers give up a lot of home runs, which makes a big bat more dangerous than usual.

Odds (e.g. +250)

The sportsbook's price. A "+250" means a $100 bet pays $250 in profit if it hits. Bigger plus numbers = the book thinks it's less likely (and pays more).

Edge

When our model thinks a home run is more likely than the sportsbook's price implies, that gap is the "edge" — the reason a pick stands out.