💣 HR LEADERBOARD

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Every batter on tonight's slate ranked by our recommended HR probability — a daily-refit logistic regression on sportsbook odds + matchup-vs-pitcher + season power + historical batter-vs-pitcher. Sort by any column. Click a row for the full component breakdown. What do the badges mean?

—Batters

—Games

—Elite tier

—Edge ≥ +5pp

—Top edge

Tier ELITE STRONG GOOD SOLID BELOW · Badges (click to filter)

Team Tier Min season HR Min HR prob % Max odds xHR Min edge

≥ −50%

only edge > 0 0 shown

Badges 👑 #1 🏆 BIG VALUE 💎 VALUE 🎰 LONGSHOT 🌡️ CHALK 🔥 HOT FORM ❄️ COLD 💪 ELITE POWER ⚡ POWER 🥊 ARSENAL 🎯 MATCHUP ⚔️ TOUGH MATCHUP 🤝 BvP+ 👻 BvP− 🌪️ PARK BOOST 🚫 PARK DRAG 💀 K RISK Match

RK ▲	Batter	Tier	Odds	HR Prob	🔥 Hot Bat	⚔️ BvP	🔥⚔️ Hot+BvP	L3 HR	L5 HR	L7 HR	HR vs xHR	Edge	Badges
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Methodology: P(HR) refits daily on the prior 14 days of outcomes (logistic regression on sportsbook implied probability + arsenal-vs-pitcher + season power + historical batter-vs-pitcher). Edge = P(HR) − market implied. Tiers anchored to overall composite score for legibility; ranking itself uses P(HR) with edge as tiebreaker. Hypothetical / illustrative — not betting advice.